It has been a volatile start to the month for stocks, with bonds and stocks declining, and the oil price rising, as the Middle East crisis heats up. There is a challenging backdrop for stock markets this month. The oil price is higher by 11%, there is a 66% chance of a rate hike from the Federal Reserve on 16th September, after Fed chair Kevin Warsh struck a hawkish stance at the Jackson Hole conference, the ECB and the BOJ are also expected to hike rates this month, and seasonality tends to see a weak performance for stock markets in September.
On top of fears about lofty AI valuations, this is a more nervous backdrop for traders compared to the rest of 2026. However, there are 5 stocks that we think are worth watching closely. They all have a strong narrative that could boost their resilience in the coming weeks, regardless of the market backdrop.
It has been a volatile start to the month for stocks, with bonds and stocks declining, and the oil price rising, as the Middle East crisis heats up. There is a challenging backdrop for stock markets this month. The oil price is higher by 11%, there is a 66% chance of a rate hike from the Federal Reserve on 16th September, after Fed chair Kevin Warsh struck a hawkish stance at the Jackson Hole conference, the ECB and the BOJ are also expected to hike rates this month, and seasonality tends to see a weak performance for stock markets in September.
On top of fears about lofty AI valuations, this is a more nervous backdrop for traders compared to the rest of 2026. However, there are 5 stocks that we think are worth watching closely. They all have a strong narrative that could boost their resilience in the coming weeks, regardless of the market backdrop.
Apple
This is a catalyst-stacked month for the iPhone maker. Firstly, John Ternus took over as CEO on Sept 1, and the iPhone/foldable launch event will take place on Sept 9. Apple enters September with strong fundamentals, bolstered by double-digit revenue growth for last quarter. The company is also set to make strides in the AI sphere, with the M6 Mac lineup further strengthening its in-house AI capabilities, which the company hopes will drive future revenue growth. Its share price is trading just below $325, however, the technical picture looks good, and momentum is to the upside. It is worth watching how the market reacts to the foldable iPhone and to the expected pricing changes, and what this means for demand. $340, the end of July high, is the resistance level to watch for Apple bulls.
Chart 1: Apple
Source: XTB. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Tesla
There are two key events to watch at Tesla in the coming weeks. Firstly, the Cybercab launch event in Austin, Texas on Sept 3, and the ongoing robotaxi/China headlines. The Cybercab launch event is crucial for Tesla’s robotaxi ambitions, though a China recall covering nearly 3 million vehicles is a fresh headline overhang creating two-sided risk for the stock. Can dreams of a robotaxi future neutralise concerns elsewhere? The share price is still down 22% this year, but is higher by 14% in the past month, suggesting that sentiment could be shifting for the EV maker. A drop below $350 could trigger demand, with $369, the 200-day sma, a key level of resistance.
Chart 2: Tesla
Source: XTB. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
BP
This UK energy major has had a strong year, the stock price is higher by 24% YTD, but it is affected by the twists and turns in the ongoing war in the Middle East. A rise in tensions and the oil price tends to see BP’s share price rise, while signs of reduced hostilities causes the oil price to fall, and BP’s share price to come under pressure. Even so, the sharp jump in the price of oil in Q3, Brent crude was trading at $73 per barrel in early June, and it is now above $90 per barrel, should ensure chunky revenues and profits at its next earnings report in early November. For those who like a bargain, even with a 20% gain in the share price this year, BP is still an attractive value/buyback story. BP trades at £5.38 with a forward P/E of 6.5x future earnings, it has a dividend yield of 5.0% and fair-value upside of 33.9%. Combined with a strong backdrop for future earnings growth, the stock price could outperform in September.
Chart 3: BP
Source: XTB. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Deutsche Bank
The European banking space has been a surprise front-runner this year. The Eurostoxx banking index is the fourth best performing index out of the majors YTD, and is higher by 20%. Banks are in focus as we move into September, and there are key drivers of volatility to watch in the coming weeks. Rising bond yields can impact banks that hold large amounts of sovereign debt, as bond prices get hit and banks may have to write down the value of their investments. Also, there is a global shift towards tighter monetary policy, which could have a big impact on bank earnings in the coming months.
Currently, Deutsche Bank trades at €34.80, it has a very reasonable price to earnings ratio of 10x, and technical indicators suggest that momentum could be to the upside. The stock price is up 24% in the past 6 months, and it is at its highest levels since the Eurozone debt crisis. However, we think the stock still has legs and may keep moving higher.
The focus could shift to two events in the coming weeks. The first is the ECB meeting on September 9th, the second is Deutsche Bank’s next earrings report on October 28th. ECB board member Isabel Schnabel warned on August 26 that rates must rise further, with money markets now pricing in a 25bp hike in September. This could be a tailwind for Deutsche, as net interest margin is likely to remain elevated for some time. This could also keep the focus on European banks as a good value sector for investors to consider when making their Q4 portfolio adjustments.
Chart 4: Deutsche Bank
Source: XTB. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
GE Vernova
This stock is a play on the AI infrastructure build out, specifically AI-power-infrastructure exposure, without buying another chip stock. This stock moves closely with the AI trade, it is up 39% YTD, but is down 5% in a month, as the AI trade struggles to find consistent form. The share price is back above $921, after a move below $900 attracted strong demand, which reinforces the $900 level as key support. However, it is worth noting that the fundamental backdrop for this stock is strong, and its recent earnings report suggests that the financial outlook remains robust. Its total order backlog reached $176 billion in Q2 2026, up $13 billion from the prior quarter, and the company nearly doubled its 2026 free cash flow guidance to $11.5–12.5 billion after generating $10 billion in the first half of this year. Analysts remain more bullish on the stock than the market does, which is also a positive sign, and the recent correction could attract a new wave of investors who may help to propel the stock higher.
The stock price has a decent P/E ratio for a stock that is linked to the AI buildout at 25x, however, there is a weak spot for GE Vernova, its wind segment is expected to post roughly $400 million in EBITDA losses in 2026. This makes the company’s next earnings report on 28th October, one to watch. Options markets are pricing a large move around this earnings print. The CFO is also being replaced, which is also worth flagging. However, we continue to think that there is upside in this stock, and key resistance levels to target include the 50 and 200-day smas, which come in at $979 and $1006 respectively. If there is a stabilisation in the AI trade in the coming weeks, this could boost GE Vernova.
Chart 5: GE Vernova
Source: XTB. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
TACO: Trump Always Chickens Out - Why Markets Shrug Off His Tariff Threats
Why is Lloyds share price rising?
5 FTSE 100 stocks to watch in 2025
This content has been created by XTB S.A. This service is provided by XTB S.A., with its registered office in Warsaw, at Prosta 67, 00-838 Warsaw, Poland, entered in the register of entrepreneurs of the National Court Register (Krajowy Rejestr Sądowy) conducted by District Court for the Capital City of Warsaw, XII Commercial Division of the National Court Register under KRS number 0000217580, REGON number 015803782 and Tax Identification Number (NIP) 527-24-43-955, with the fully paid up share capital in the amount of PLN 5.869.181,75. XTB S.A. conducts brokerage activities on the basis of the license granted by Polish Securities and Exchange Commission on 8th November 2005 No. DDM-M-4021-57-1/2005 and is supervised by Polish Supervision Authority.